Poker strategy - Pot Odds and Bluffing

By: Sally Surefoot

Ok so i was watching High Stakes Poker and I think the pot was unraised preflop. Anyways this guy with an open end straight draw and flush draw went all in on the flop. Everyone folds to this one guy who has top pair and a flush draw. He thinks for a little bit and calls. Then it seemed like everyone at the table said he took too long to call because it was an obvious call. So here I am sitting there thinking “it was an obvious call?”. Even if he thought the other guy had trips he would still hafta call? So i try and figure this out, why is it an obvious call. Is top pair with a flush draw that big that you call no matter what?

So I pull out my calculater and begin the these simple calculations cause I am to lazy to do it in my head.

If you have top pair with flush draw and you put him on either, two pair, trips or bluff. In this hand he could not have flopped a straight btw.
So you give him
50% chance of having trips, = you have 3 outs? 2 outs for you making a higher set and 1 out for you hitting your runner runner full house of your kicker assuming your kicker is higher than his set. So 3 outs= 13% winning on turn or river. .5*.13= 7%

40% chance of having two pair = 11 outs = .40*.42=17%

10% on a bluff you have about 95% chance of winning = .10*.95=10%
So add them up equals a total of 34% Chance of winning this hand if you put them on any of the above. And I would rather be safe than sorry so in this situation I would. Of course knowing the player is tight would help too. I realize if I remember the exact this would be a lot easier to understand what I’m trying to say but I alreayd wrote all this out. So anways if my pot odds are 30% as well it is a must call. However if the all in is double the pot making my pot odds 1 to 1 (50%) I should not call right? Shit I hope I didn’t confuse you all. Btw the above calculations was taking from Dan Harrington on calculating Preflop all in decisions. I don’t see any problem with using it on the flop.

Free Texas Holdem Game Blog Poker Strategy | Pot Odds

Article Source: http://www.dxarticle.com

Sally is a part time semi professional online poker player, using the game to improve decision making not to mention boost the bank balance. Checkout Sally's personal websitePoker Bonus & Fun Animations

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